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I know that if I transfer moneroj to an incorrect but otherwise valid address, I will lose my moneroj. So I am wondering:

  • What is the likelihood that a 95-character string corresponds to a valid monero address?
  • If the address is invalid, will I lose my moneroj?
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A monero address includes a 32 bit checksum, so assuming the checksum is randomly distributed over the whole space, you get one match over about 4 billion, or 0.000000023283% chance of the checksum matching by pure chance. However, all 95 character strings do not represent a valid address in the first place, so a failure to decode as base58 will also get an invalid address rejected.

If the address is invalid, you don't lose your monero, it just doesn't get sent. If it's a valid address to which you do not have the private keys (or do not know who does, or that person/entity is not willing to send back), then you do lose your monero.

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