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Just for the fun of it I setup the Gingeropolus pool software on my VPS. I have 5 GTX 1050ti, 2 RX470,1 R9 390x, 1 R9 270, and 3 HD7950s. This is roughly bring me 4kh/s hashing power.

What are my chances of discovering a block at this hashrate and current difficulty?

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  • Your "frequently enough to merit it" question is too subjective. Please edit the question so that it is no longer primarily opinion bases. You can divide your hash rate by the network hashrate to estimate your chances of finding a block in a certain period of time.
    – Smart Kid
    Jul 20 '17 at 19:39
  • I edited my question to be more specific and be clearer than one that asked about opinion
    – shamelessApathy
    Jul 24 '17 at 15:22
  • thank you for editing the question title. Can you edit the question itself too? "drop in the bucket" "enough to merit it" and "decent findings" are all subjective.
    – Smart Kid
    Jul 28 '17 at 21:56
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tl;dr

Solo mining is a lottery unless you have a few dozen GPUs

Explanation

Target block time in Monero is 2 minutes, based on that and your share in the network hashrate you can calculate how frequently you will find blocks.

Let H be the network hashrate, and h be your own hashrate. Then on average you will find a block every

t = 120 / (h / H) = 120 * (H / h) (seconds) = (H / h) / 720 (days)

Now let t and t' be your "substantial enough" target, in seconds and days accordingly. You can find minimum h / H ratio to achieve it, i.e. a proportion of the net hashrate you must own:

h / H = 120 / t = 1 / (720 * t')

If H is known, your minimum hashrate to achieve that is 

h = H * 120 / t = H / (720 * t')

Current network hashrate is ~125 MH/s (Jul 19, 2017), so with 4 KH/s you'll have to wait for 43 days on average to find a block, meaning that you can easily have zero payouts during a month or two.

Finally, let's calculate how much hashrate you currently need to get payouts at least once a week on average (bear in mind that H tends to grow over time):

h = 125000 / (720 * 7) = 24.8 KH/s
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You can easily calculate.

Divide the network hashrate with your hashrate and multiply by average block time. The result ought to give you a rough estimate of time between 2 blocks.

With 4kH/s that is about every 42 days to find a block (on average, with network hashrate of 120MH/s).

The decision is yours :)

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